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How serious is the situation?
North Korea is by far the most dangerous and unstable regime ever to gain access to nuclear weapons. The testing of a nuclear weapon by this regime is therefore a very serious development for the Korean Peninsula, for the Asia Pacific region and the world.
If it is true, as it appears to be, that North Korea has indeed tested these weapons, one likely outcome will be that it will give a strong impetus to Japan to enhance its own military capabilities. ... Such a course would profoundly restructure the balance of power in the region.
How quickly could Japan develop nuclear capability and how realistic is it that they would take this step?
Japan could develop nuclear weapons very, very quickly. There are no major hurdles in their way other than their previously stated strong desire not to go nuclear. So I don't think they will go nuclear any time soon. But the fact that there is this neighboring regime with weapons and a demonstrated willingness to act so brazenly, will put strong pressure upon Japan, growing over time, to reconsider its nuclear stance.
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Japan
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Get the Facts
 balance of power - when no one country is more powerful than all the others
brazen - bold
concerted – resulting from the decision of a group
condemn – to declare to be wrong
diplomacy – negotiations or discussions between government officials
impetus – something that causes action
implication – consequence
instable – behavior that is not predictable
justification – a reason
obliterate – to destroy completely
overexposed – open to a dangerous situation
regime – a government in power
stance – a position or side on a specific issue |
What are the implications for South Korea?
South Korea has been following for a long time what they call the 'Sunshine Policy' established by former president Kim Dae Jung, supporting the North Korea regime primarily because they so fear the consequences of a North Korean collapse. But these latest developments put that policy under enormous strain. When in earlier stages North Korea was firing missiles in many dangerous ways, South Korea actually played it down. It's going to be very difficult for them to play this down.
The key thing for the South Korea community is to maintain a united front with Japan, China, themselves, the US and Russia. All of them have an interest now in condemning North Korea but how this plays out will be in terms of what they see as more dangerous--a nuclear North Korea or a collapsed North Korea.
And what does this mean for China?
China is in a difficult position having been closest to North Korea, providing a lifeline to the North Korean government in energy and economic assistance. And China has clearly stated it didn't want North Korea to take this step. And now China is in a very tough position because on the one hand they need to encourage North Korea to step back from where they are, not least because China doesn't want to create a justification for Japan to re-arm or go nuclear and there's the question of overall instability. China also fears a collapsed North Korea and the refugee flows and instability that would create on their border.
What should the US do now?
The US is also in a tough situation having said it would never tolerate a nuclear North Korea and now the world is facing just that. Military options always are on the table but it would be extremely tough for the US to use the military option against North Korea for two major reasons: one, because the US is so overexposed in Iraq and two, because North Korea has the conventional means to obliterate Seoul very, very quickly. So using force against North Korea is not an appealing option for anybody. That leaves us with diplomatic action. And that requires a concerted effort among all the states including Russia. And keeping them all on the same page and maximizing the pressure on North Korea will be key.
Dr. Metzl, who is currently in South Korea, is Asia Society's Executive Vice President. He has served in the White House, State Department and Congress, and has written extensively and is often interviewed about foreign policy.
Copyright 2006. Author: Jamie Metzl
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An Interview
